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Abstract
We describe, analyze, and contrast historical trends in mesothelioma cases in the US and the UK and discuss these trends in relation to trends in asbestos exposure over the past 60 years. In the US, the number of mesothelioma cases for men is projected to peak at approximately 2,300 cases per year before the year 2000. Based on the historical trend and assumptions concerning current and projected exposure to asbestos, the annual number of male cases in the US is projected to decline to the background rate of approximately 500 cases per year around the year 2055. The time pattern for the number of female cases in the US has been constant at approximately 500 cases per year and is projected to remain at that level. In the UK, the number of male cases is projected to peak in the year 2020 somewhere between 2700 and 3300 cases per year depending on assumptions concerning asbestos exposure for men born after 1958. The time pattern of female cases in the UK mirrors the pattern for males, but at a lower level. The 20-year difference in the timing of the peak occurrence of cases between the US and the UK may be explained by a 20-year difference in the timing of peak exposures. We briefly address the interpretation of these trends for differentiating the mesothelioma potency of amphibole fibers from chrysotile fibers. We conclude, based on trend and exposure projections for the US, that the amphibole-chrysotile debate has little practical significance for risk management if exposures to asbestos continue to be maintained at the low levels of today.
Source: http://www.physics.harvard.edu/~wilson/publications/pp719/ppaper719.html
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